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New Yorkers will find out the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will decide who runs and protects the country's most populous metropolis at a moment when Donald Trump has vowed to send armed forces to the urban center.

In this context, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democratic figures against one another. The election has turned into an acrimonious showdown, marked by alleged racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two main candidates that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has brought global notice. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the ex- New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the former longshot who beat his opponent in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a agenda of affordability and pledged to freeze rent for about two million New Yorkers, has led Cuomo by significant margins in every poll conducted in October, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, Cuomo, who resigned as governor in recent years amid allegations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has trashed his opponent's goals as unrealistic, and in recent days laughed as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was widely condemned as racist after posting an AI-generated ad that included a slew of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent freeing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby conclusion to an race that could be critical to the path that the Democratic party, struggling in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

If the progressive secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his campaign will be compelled to address a message that has appealed to Americans' anger at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about affordability, given the newcomer has created an excitement within the Democratic ranks arguably not seen since the Vermont senator ran for president in 2016.

Conversely, if Cuomo, who had been predicted to win easily in the Democratic primary, achieve a remarkable comeback victory, it could cement the party's current model of considered, uninspiring resistance – a tactic that has angered the party base. A New York rejection of the progressive's optimistic platform could persuade party leaders that the best plan is to remain in the political center – even as polls show the current iteration of the party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in the city appear to favor the progressive agenda. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. The candidate's engaging content on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for the city and his readiness to actually get out and connect with voters in the metropolis has attracted an force of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them young or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

However, the former governor, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks stacked against him, the ex-leader has resorted to negative campaigning in the final days.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might stick, the independent has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate directly. He has called Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an "radical", and popped up on Fox Business for an interview with a rightwing host, where Cuomo claimed the city “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It hit bottom last week, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

The line of attack mirrors much of what the former president, who has sent the national guard to Washington DC and warned to take similar action to New York, has said about the progressive, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to the Republican in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to elect Cuomo into office, as other powerful voices have urged the Republican candidate to withdraw from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the his team, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, started his mayoral bid in last year, not many had heard of him, and in truth, barely anyone even noticed.

The former governor, by contrast, entered smoothly into the race in March 2025 and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential political insider, he had wed a political dynasty member and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as New York governor in over a decade ago, 17 years after his parent, the former governor, stepped down from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a brighter outlook of the city's direction than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, Mamdani has faced some challenges in the final phase, after video emerged appearing to show him implying the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your throat, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the clip, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was questioning cooperative programs between the NYPD and IDF.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, Mamdani seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his response to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

The progressive addressed the independent's terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first ran for the legislature, a family member advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must leave our beliefs.”

Speaking to the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd